In 2023, movie audiences want convenience, not superhero spectacle

Hollywood’s movie franchises operate according to conventional wisdom – well-established notions, based on experience, about the types of films that are most likely to top the global box office.

This year, the public turned many of those so-called rules on their head.

Superheroes have always been seen as the most reliable way to fill seats. But characters like Captain Marvel, Flash, Ant-Man, Shazam, and Blue Beetle failed to impress moviegoers. Over the weekend, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, which cost more than $200 million to produce and tens of millions more to market, grossed a disastrous $28 million in the United States and Canada. Overseas moviegoers earned another $80 million.

Meanwhile, the year’s biggest movie at the box office, “Barbie,” which grossed $1.44 billion in worldwide ticket sales, was directed by a woman, based on a very feminine, pink-painted toy — ingredients that most studios have. It has long been viewed as limiting audience appeal. There’s an old principle in the film industry that women go to a “men’s” movie but not the other way around.

“The Super Mario Bros. Movie” took in $1.36 billion, a second-place result that also stunned Hollywood. Studios have a troubled history with game adaptations. “Oppenheimer,” a three-hour drama about a physicist, came in third place with $952 million, contradicting the widespread belief that films intended for adults are not viable in theaters in the era of streaming.

“Without a doubt, change is afoot, audiences are in a different mood,” said David Gross, a film consultant who publishes a newsletter on box office numbers. “The country and the world are not in the same place. We have been through seven years of divisive politics, a severe pandemic, two dangerous wars, and climate change.” And inflation. Moviegoers seem less interested in immersing themselves in the spectacle and saving the universe than in talking to them, entertaining them, and inspiring them.

The year’s biggest box office surprises fall into the “talk to” category. “Voice of Freedom,” a $15 million crime drama to produce that targeted a far-right audience largely ignored by Hollywood, generated $248 million in ticket sales, on par with “The Eras Tour,” which targeted Taylor. Swift fans and it also cost about $15 million.

“Voice of Freedom” came from Angel Studios, an independent company in Provo, Utah, which backed the film with an unconventional “Pay It Forward” program, which allows supporters to purchase tickets online for those who might not otherwise see it. In a major departure from Hollywood norms, Ms. Swift cut the middle company (studio) and struck a direct distribution deal with AMC Entertainment, the world’s largest theater operator.

“Our phone has been rocking hard since the day we announced Project Eras Tour,” AMC CEO Adam Aron told investors on a conference call in November, referring to “alternative content” opportunities.

ComScore, which collects box office data, on Sunday predicted North American ticket sales for this year would reach about $9 billion, up 20% from 2022. (Before the pandemic, North American theaters sold about $11 billion in tickets annually). The average price of an adult general admission ticket in the United States was $12.14, up from $11.75, according to research firm EntTelligence.

Worldwide ticket sales are expected to exceed $33 billion, an increase of 27 percent, due in part to the increase in Latin America. (Before the pandemic, worldwide ticket sales easily exceeded $40 billion annually.)

Hollywood’s rise from the pandemic is expected to halt in 2024. With fewer films scheduled for release — studio production lines have been disrupted by recent strikes — ticket sales will decline 5 to 11 percent next year, depending on the market, Gower forecasts. Street Analytics, a box office research company.

Reading box office tea leaves is like talking about symbolism in works of fiction: any halfway plausible theory works. But studio executives need something, anything, to guide them as they make billion-dollar decisions for future seasons.

Here are five takeaways from this year:

Moviegoers want convenience.

People reach for nostalgia during times of stress, and films that reminded audiences of the past — while also managing to feel refreshing — were successful. “Barbie”, “The Super Mario Bros. Movie”, “The Little Mermaid”, “Wonka” and the retro feel of “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem” allowed people to revisit their childhood. “Insidious: The Red Door” was a hit by bringing back the original stars of the series.

“Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” could have exploited nostalgia to great success. Instead, 81-year-old Harrison Ford reminded Indy fans that they, too, are getting older. “Dial of Destiny” cost Disney $295 million to produce and earned $384 million. (Theaters keep about 50 percent of ticket sales.)

Art film has a pulse.

Sophisticated dramas with modest budgets aimed at older audiences are showing signs of life after two years at the ICU box office

The streaming era has forever shifted the bulk of prestige movie viewing to the home, analysts say. But theaters have had a modicum of success in 2023 with shows like “Past Lives,” a somber drama with some Korean dialogue, and Hayao Miyazaki’s animated film “The Boy and the Heron.” The specially designed “asteroid city” managed to gross $54 million.

Early box office results were also promising for Oscar-winning films like Bad Things, a surreal sci-fi romance, and American Fantasy, a satire about a writer who writes a fake memoir based on racial stereotypes.

Bigger is not better.

Over the past decade, Hollywood has kept audiences interested in sequels by making each sequel more overblown and often nonsensical than the last. Larger! faster! more!

This strategy may need to be rethought, as it is too expensive, analysts say, especially with Chinese moviegoers complaining about American blockbusters. Fast By comparison, 2015’s “Furious 7” cost $190 million and grossed $1.5 billion, including $391 million in China.

As for the seventh Tom Cruise movie, “Mission: Impossible,” which was released in July on the heels of “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer,” it cost nearly $290 million to produce and has raised $568 million, including $49 million in box office. China. As for the sixth part of the movie “Mission: Impossible” in 2018, it cost $178 million and achieved $792 million, with Chinese ticket buyers collecting $181 million.

Increasingly, franchises and spin-offs need to feel fresh to succeed. For example, Lionsgate delved deeper into the underground criminal organization High Table in “John Wick: Chapter 4” and gave “Hunger Games” fans a new story (and cast) in the prequel “The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes.” Both films were successful. Lionsgate even revived the “Saw” horror franchise by taking the narrative back in time.

“Each of these films did something different than the last,” said Adam Fogelson, senior vice president of Lionsgate Motion Picture Group. “It wasn’t just a matter of spending more, making it bigger, making it louder, and getting it to do more.”

Some audience patterns remain intact.

Horror film continues to be a reliable performer, with “Five Nights at Freddy’s” and “M3gan” launching new franchises for Universal and its Blumhouse subsidiary. Together, the two films cost $32 million. They have collectively raised $469 million. Also worth noting is The Nun II, which was commissioned by Warner Bros. About $38 million and earned $268 million.

Superheroes may be missing, but they’re not out. Marvel’s “Guardians of the Galaxy” series returned for a third season and grossed $846 million against a budget of $250 million. Sony’s gritty, anime-influenced “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” cost an estimated $150 million and has collected $691 million.

The stars are important.

The conventional wisdom in Hollywood was that movie stars were essentially a thing of the past. A celebrity’s name above the title no longer carries so much weight with ticket buyers. The underlying “intellectual property” is what fills the seats.

People pay to see Barbie, not Margot Robbie.

Except that Mattel and several studios have been trying for at least 20 years to turn the toy into a living movie star. It took Ms. Robbie in the role (and Ryan Gosling as Kane) to finally make it happen. Other films that benefited from star power in 2023 include Wonka with Timothée Chalamet and Creed III with Michael B. Jordan.

Stars have no weight? Try telling that to the producers of “Gran Turismo,” “Haunted Mansion,” “Dumb Money” and “Strays,” all of which disappointed at the box office and arrived when their actors were prevented from promoting their work due to the SAG-AFTRA strike.