One question for a Taylor Swift-era concert film: How big will it be?

Taylor Swift, the world’s biggest pop star, is about to become the world’s biggest movie star, at least for the weekend. The only question is whether her concert film’s attendance will be huge, or really huge.

Box office analysts continue to raise their weekend release estimates for “Taylor Swift: The Else Tour,” which hits theaters Friday night amid a flurry of free publicity. (As you may know, Ms. Swift has been spending a lot of time with Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce lately.) The nearly three-hour film was originally released this weekend in the US at around It was expected to sell $75 million in tickets. And in Canada, analysts arrived at that estimate by looking at advance sales and surveys of moviegoers. As of Tuesday, the domestic figure appears to be closer to $125 million.

Could it reach $150 million? “Yes, that’s a possibility,” said David A. Gross, a film consultant and publisher of a box office newsletter. “The enthusiasm and scale is unprecedented.”

Swift’s “The Elus Tour,” which cost her about $15 million to make, is expected to raise at least $60 million more overseas over the weekend.

“We are in for a surprise,” said Wanda Gearhart Fearing, chief marketing and content officer at Cinemark, a movie theater chain with a large presence in the southern United States and Latin America. In addition to standard screenings, Cinemark and other multiplex operators offer private viewings. ($800 for 40 people. Dancing is encouraged but not allowed in seats.)

The domestic box office record for a debut concert film is held by Paramount Pictures’ 2011 film Justin Bieber: Never Say Never. It grossed $41 million (adjusted for inflation) in its first three days in North American theaters, and ended up grossing $101. $138 million in the U.S. and Canada and $138 million worldwide.

Michael Jackson’s This Is It, released by Sony Pictures in 2009, holds the record for the most tickets sold. Across North America, he earned $105 million, and worldwide, adjusted for inflation, he earned $380 million.

Box office analysts aren’t sure what to expect from the “Ellas Tour.” One reason for this is that it comes just nine weeks after Ms. Swift completed the first leg of her six-month, 53-date sold-out North American tour. Trade publication Pollstar estimated that she sold about $14 million in tickets each night.

Has casual fans’ thirst for Ms. Swift been satisfied for the time being? The cultural frenzy surrounding her Elas concerts has attracted a wider audience, one who will never pay hundreds of dollars to see her perform in a stadium, but will spend big bucks on movie tickets. How much did it pique the curiosity of people who might pay? (Most seats to the movie cost $19.89, a nod to the name of Ms. Swift’s fifth album and the year of her birth.) )

Complicating expectations is that Swift broke Hollywood convention in releasing the film in theaters.

In a typical model, a studio would book a movie into theaters and spend $20 million to $100 million on marketing to draw an audience. Theaters show movies and sell specials. In return, the studio will take his 70% of the opening weekend’s ticket sales and the theater will keep the rest.

Swift produced and financed “Ellas Tour” herself, bypassing an intermediary (studio) and signing a direct distribution agreement with AMC Entertainment, the world’s largest theater operator. One of the reasons has to do with marketing. Swift has 369 million social media followers at his disposal, so he doesn’t have to spend much on promoting the movie.

Swift will keep about 57% of the ticket revenue, and the rest will be pocketed by the theater chain, Pac Newsletter first reported. AMC also receives a small distribution fee.

However, box office projections are based on surveys of moviegoers aimed at tracking the effectiveness of studios’ marketing campaigns. For example, older women are not persuaded by advertising, but teenage boys are influenced by it. “The Elas Tour” features several paid ads, including a commercial during this month’s Chiefs primetime game. However, most movies are released amidst a flurry of publicity.

“Part of the problem has to do with staying power,” said Bruce Nash, founder of Numbers, a box office tracking and analysis site. “Will the ‘Eras ​​Tour’ do most of its box office opening weekend and then fall off a cliff? Or will people think he’ll be back six times over the course of a few weeks? We don’t know.”

Ms. Swift’s distribution choices caused Hollywood to gnash its teeth. Studio executives had to explain to their bosses why they passed up a major money-making opportunity and a chance to develop a relationship with Mr. Swift, who has ambitions to direct a feature film. (She has also tried her hand at acting in films such as “Cats.”) Fearing competition from “Ellas Tour,” Universal Pictures hastily moved up the release date of “The Exorcist: Believer.” Ticket sales were weak.

The studio also had to grapple with the existential question: Is the distribution of “The Eras Tour” the beginning of a paradigm shift? Will we see more movies bypassing the studios? Beyoncé has already signed a deal with AMC to follow Swift and distribute her concert documentary “Renaissance: The Beyoncé Movie,” which will be released in theaters on December 1st.

Anything is possible. Nash said Fathom Events, an independent distribution company that specializes in short-term screenings and simulcasting opera performances, has had success bringing a faith-based project (“The Chosen”) directly to theaters. He pointed out that there was. Trafalgar Releasing released a concert film that focused on his Korean boy band, BTS, which made it a hit out of the studios in February.

However, most studio executives and entertainment industry analysts dismiss “The Eras Tour” as a one-off. When it comes to mobilizing her fan base, they say Ms. Swift is taking a class on her own. Even Beyoncé hasn’t shown the same sales prowess. The Eras Tour’s first day advance sales totaled an estimated $37 million, and “Renaissance” grossed approximately $7 million.

For now, theater chains aren’t thinking much beyond the weekend. Theaters have been deserted for the past two months, with hits like The Nun II (Warner Bros.) losing out to a series of duds like Dumb Money, Blue Beetle, The Creator and Expend 4 Bulls. offset by.

Two major films originally scheduled for this fall, Kraven the Hunter and Dune: Part 2, have been postponed to next year due to the actors’ strike. (SAG-AFTRA, known as the Actors Guild, prohibits its members from working on promotional activities for already completed films or television shows until the strike is resolved.)

Of course, theater companies make most of their money from concession stands, and AMC is counting on Ms. Swift’s fans, for one, to come hungry. Among other items, the chain will sell popcorn in collectible containers for $20.

Marketing line: “Swifties always snack in style.”