How will the election affect films like ‘Civil War’?

“Civil War,” A24’s action thriller about a violently divided United States, doesn’t offer much in the way of escape. Although it takes place in a dystopian future, it does subtly fuel the blue-state-red-state rift that is sure to widen as the race for the White House heats up.

This strategy is evident in the film’s patriotic marketing materials, which include a blood-splattered trailer showing a missile blowing up the Lincoln Memorial, a poster of soldiers sandbagging the Statue of Liberty’s torch, and references to successive troops in California and Texas.

Elsewhere in Hollywood, however, movie studios are trying hard to steer clear of promotional efforts that seem even remotely political — lest they find themselves unwittingly caught up in a cultural firestorm. It’s a fair concern. Long before the country began preparing for one of the most polarizing presidential elections in its history, many films became ensnared in partisan debates over creative choices that they never expected would spark controversy.

This was the case with Disney’s remake of “The Little Mermaid,” which suffered negative backlash over racist objections to the casting of black actress Halle Bailey in the role of Ariel. Ditto for Pixar’s 2022 spinoff “Lightyear” (the culprit was a same-sex kiss) and 2023’s “Barbie” (a cartoon map depicting Asia). In some cases, the provocation was accidental; In other cases, such as Disney’s animated film “Strange World” (a fantasy adventure with a gay hero), attempts at inclusion have instead revealed dividing lines in public opinion.

“Voice of Freedom,” released last summer, was a surprise hit when conservative media groups rallied behind the film. But critics of the Christian thriller about child sex trafficking accused it of fueling QAnon conspiracy theories. However, for the most part, there is no evidence that the perception of partisanship has an impact on ticket sales, at least in the United States (internationally, “Barbie” was not shown in areas offended by cartography, and “Lightyear” and ‘Strange World’ banned in countries that censor LGBTQ content.) However, political discussions are not the kind of conversation studios hope to inspire around a film’s release.

“I don’t think too much controversy is helpful,” says Peter Newman, head of the dual graduate program at New York University’s Tisch School of the Arts. “You can’t afford to lose 50% of people.”

Studios are, as a rule, cautious about ideas and elements in films that could alienate audiences. But that fear escalates during an election year, when politics could seep into movies whether Hollywood wants it or not. In 2024, the bitter partisanship that has fueled Donald Trump’s political career is heating up, as he faces a rematch with President Joe Biden. Consider that 65% of Americans say they feel overwhelmed when thinking about politics, according to a Pew Research Center poll — and it’s no surprise that marketing departments are making a concerted effort to tread lightly on messaging or promotions that could be perceived as leaning in one direction. Or the other.

“It’s not worth it to make a joke that will make the left laugh, but it will alienate the right,” says one studio executive.

Movies can take eons to go from beginning to end, so it’s impossible to predict the state by the time a movie is ready to hit the big screen. “Dune: Part Two”, produced by Warner Bros., was a success. and Legendary Entertainment in avoiding controversy surrounding the film’s plot, which incorporates themes of religion, regional conflicts, and the dangers of cult-like worship of charismatic leaders. But domestically, there were fears that the public would react negatively at a time when such issues have renewed importance in both the United States and the Middle East, which finds itself embroiled in war.

“If people legitimately or accidentally read that there’s political bias in something, that ruins the marketing plan,” Newman says. “It was hard enough before people became so sensitive about every little thing.”

Some moviegoers turn to movies as a way to escape the headlines and barrage of election ads on television. But studios may lay off all their marketing efforts in the weeks before or after the election. The sequel to Tom Hardy’s superhero film “Venom: The Last Dance” was scheduled to premiere on November 8, but Sony recently moved its release date forward to October 25. Now, there are no major films on the calendar for the first week of November, and there won’t be another tentpole until “Gladiator 2” on November 22, followed by “Wicked” and “Moana 2” on November 27.

“It’s going to be a quiet time in terms of releasing new material. You’ll get drowned out by the noise and people won’t pay attention to you,” says the studio executive. “Anything that starts election week, good luck. It’s going to be tough to break through.”

As for the movie “Civil War,” which does not take sides in the future American conflict, analysts believe that the commercial viability will neither increase nor decrease due to the political nature of the film.

“If the movie is successful, I think it will be because of the action, the excitement and the violence,” says David Gross of film consultancy Franchise Entertainment Research. “In general, I think if you’re really interested in politics, it’s disgusting.”