An existential crisis as Hollywood rethinks what makes a success – The Hollywood Reporter

One in five moviegoers have disappeared since the pandemic, according to research by one Hollywood studio. Whether or not they will return to watch a movie on the big screen is anyone’s guess, and if they do, when they will return.

It’s a troubling statistic that offers some explanation for why the box office has turned upside down in 2023, leaving the film industry scratching its head. Superhero fare — the genre that has helped fuel the business for more than a decade — no longer gets a free pass with the bombardment of big-budget pictures, including the light And Aquaman and the Lost Kingdomboth from DC and Marvel Studios Wonders.

“Audience tastes are changing, and they seem to want more of a challenge,” says Paul Dergarabedian, senior box office analyst at comScore.

The long-running existential crisis was settled when two original and new summer blockbusters were produced – Barbie And Oppenheimer – He fooled everyone and turned into the cultural phenomenon known as Barbenheimer. while Barbie Based on a well-known IP, there were no guarantees that Greta Gerwig’s irreverent new film would be a hit. Barbie It is the first female-led live-action film to top the annual global and domestic box office charts in the modern era, with more than $1.44 billion in ticket sales worldwide, while Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer It ranks third on the list of the year’s highest global grossers with $952 million, a record for a biopic. The two films account for nearly 10% of total domestic ticket sales, and about 29% of the 10 highest-grossing films, according to Comscore.

Around the same time as Barbenheimer’s film, the conservative film Freedom’s voice It took off at the box office almost without warning and did more business domestically — $184.2 million — than tried-and-true franchise installments. Indiana Jones and the Connection of Destiny ($174.5 million) and Mission Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 ($172 million). In mid-October, Taylor Swift became another box office unicorn when her concert photos were taken, Tour of the ages, grossed $179.6 million domestically and $250.3 million worldwide against a meager $15 million budget. Furthermore, it bypassed Hollywood studios and instead asked AMC Theaters to distribute the film.

The family market has also remained incredibly fragile post-pandemic, especially for original animation, such as Disney films he wishes or Immigrationfrom Lighting and Disney. Super Mario Bros movie, based on the beloved video game, was a major exception to the decline of animation. Superhero fatigue and problems with animation leave a void that no one quite knows how to fill.

“Everything is very imbalanced,” says Wall Street analyst Rich Greenfield of LightShed Ventures. “The number of big-budget films in 2023 that didn’t make money appears to be at an all-time high. Consumer interest in going to the movies has changed permanently. The question is: Can theaters survive another terrible year?”

“We’re definitely going through an evolution,” notes a senior studio executive, “and we can’t keep producing the same old franchise. We have to do better. The ways we’ve done things for decades aren’t working anymore; now you have to get there.” At or near the target point. A lot of that has to do with the abundance of streaming products. When there are so many options available for audiences to watch at home, there better be a special reason to go to the theater.

Some Wall Street analysts are confident the box office can weather the year’s changes, as well as a potentially difficult 2024 with a weak release calendar due to strike-related delays. “We believe the industry can overcome its near-term hurdles and should be well positioned to improve results in 2025-2026,” says Eric Handler of Roth MKM Partners.

Observers also point out that domestic revenues eventually managed to surpass $9 billion in 2023 for the first time since the pandemic thanks to a diverse Christmas slate and better-than-expected showings for films including Violet, Wonka And Boys in the boat. The number isn’t quite official yet, but Comscore estimates domestic revenue at $9.05 billion, up 21 percent from 2022. However, that’s still about 21 percent lower than in 2019, the last year before the pandemic.

“Sure bets are no longer sure bets,” Dergarabedian says. “We live in a parallel universe.”

The release of the traditional art house photo platform once again shows signs of life – but with a twist.

At the height of the independent film boom, a platform release can allow a film to grow its footprint in theaters over the course of several months without having to spend a fortune on advertising. This race usually starts in New York and Los Angeles; If the film is lucky, it will end up being shown nationally. But the traditional platform version was ruined by the pandemic, and streaming didn’t help either.

However, this tactic is back, with a radical change. After sending Wes AndersonHis new film was headed to the Cannes Film Festival in May, and Focus chose to release it Asteroid city In six theaters mid-June. The film posted an opening weekend average of $132,111, its best showing since then La la land Seven years ago (this fact made many headlines). The following weekend, the focus expanded Asteroid city nationwide, or in more than 1,620 locations, in part because Focus wanted the title to be fresh in consumers’ minds when it became available for rental on premium VOD just three weeks later.

A24, Searchlight, and Neon are just a few of the other independent distributors using a similar hybrid platform model as they expand fairly quickly after starting out in a few cinemas. For A24, I worked with Priscillawhile Retainers It was well done by Focus.

“The movie that gave me back a lot of confidence was Asteroid City because it showed that you can still make a movie like this theatrically,” says Lisa Bonnell, head of distribution at Focus. “We’re now seeing a stronger market for niche films, and I think you’re starting to get younger people into the cinema to watch niche films. It’s not just the established art crowd that’s emerging now.

Kevin Wilson, head of theatrical distribution for MGM/Amazon, agrees. His list for 2023 included cross-platform releases such as Saltburn And Bottoms (It also deals with specialized image Boys in the boat, which performed much better than expected when it opened nationwide over Christmas). “I think adult audiences are starting to return to theaters in earnest. I also think there’s a younger audience of cinephiles who are interested in films like Saltburn or Bad things (Scout) or Bottoms. It’s exciting to get this young audience excited about going to the cinema to see smaller films.

After seven years, the Mouse House was dethroned by the Donna Langley-led studio in a close race for gross receipts.

Universal’s film empire is bowing out after ranking No. 1 in market share at the 2023 global box office, a feat no studio has been able to accomplish since Disney’s rise to dominance in 2016.

The 24 films released by Universal generated an estimated $4.91 billion in ticket sales worldwide, compared to an estimated $4.83 billion from the 17 titles released by Disney, resulting in a relatively close race in North America and at the foreign box office. Warner Bros. – Home Barbie, the year’s top-grossing company with $1.44 billion in ticket sales worldwide — ranked third in global market share with $3.84 billion, including $1.43 billion domestically and $2.4 billion overseas. Sony came in fourth place with revenue of $2.09 billion worldwide, including early domestic estimates of $1.01 billion and $1.08 overseas.

The transfer of authority is a big win for Donna Langley, NBCUniversal Studio Group chairman and chief content officer. Known for her close relationships with major filmmakers, she had the skills and stature to lure Christopher Nolan into the Universal fold when he became dissatisfied with Warners after it announced plans to release its 2021 slate daily and historically on the streamer. From 2016 to 2022, Disney held the top spot in global market share (losing the domestic race to Sony in 2020, the year of the COVID-19 box office collapse). Universal hasn’t ranked No. 1 on a global basis since 2015, when its revenue reached $6.9 billion, but it has consistently ranked high on the market share chart. “In 2023, Universal once again achieved box office success with our eclectic slate of films,” says Jim Orr, president of domestic distribution.

Ceding the crown to Universal is a tough year for Disney, one in which Marvel and its animation studios stumbled badly. “Being the No. 1 studio in the world for seven of the last eight years in a row is nothing short of amazing and something we’re all incredibly proud of,” says Tony Chambers, Disney’s president of worldwide distribution.

Elsewhere, Lionsgate achieved a milestone to celebrate as its films generated more than $1 billion in global ticket sales for the first time in five years thanks to successful releases for its films. John Wick: Chapter 4, The Hunger Games: Song of Songbirds and Snakes And the latest opinion Franchise, among other titles. John Wick It was particularly outstanding, grossing $440.1 million worldwide and north of $187 million domestically, the ninth-best showing of the year.

“The good news is that if audiences feel like there’s something new or exciting, they still like to see movies in theaters,” says Adam Fogelson, vice president of Lionsgate Motion Picture Group. “There are definitely genres that are facing more challenges now than they have ever been, and that’s a problem. Whether that’s a short-term trend or a long-term reality, it’s definitely going to require everyone to be very vigilant about what we decide to do and at what price point.” .

A version of this story appeared in the January 4 issue of the magazine Hollywood Reporter magazine. Click here to subscribe.