The Great Hollywood Shrink
In the years following the coronavirus, Hollywood has been trying to figure out how to operate at peak performance. However, the inevitable economic downturn and the burden of streaming have forced studios to recalibrate.
We have entered a period that people call “the Great Downturn,” and it represents a shift in the way Hollywood will continue to do business.
Today, we’ll address this downturn and talk about how it affects your job.
Let’s dig deeper.
The great contraction
Is Hollywood shrinking? We’re about to witness a period of fewer TV shows, movies, and studio mergers.
What is happening?
The rise of streaming services like Netflix, Hulu, and Disney+ has changed the way people watch movies and TV shows. People subscribe to multiple services, but there is only a limited amount of content they can consume. This means less reliance on traditional movie theaters, which hurts Hollywood studios’ revenues.
These studios have tried to get into the streaming game, but many have found it to be money-grabbing and time-consuming to develop.
In addition, they have a lot of competition.
With so many streaming services, there is pressure to constantly produce new content. Studios used to spend big on big-budget shows, but now investors are demanding profitability, leading to a move away from “at all costs” content creation.
The issues spread across traditional forms as well.
The decline in traditional television advertising and cinema attendance is another blow.
Streaming services try to serve them ads, but they have to overcome audience expectations of wanting commercial free stuff.
Finally, the COVID-19 pandemic has also disrupted productions, caused theater closures, and changed audience behavior. The industry is still feeling the after effects.
So what does this mean for you?
How will a major downturn affect your job?
backstage wild birds
Warner Bros.
The impact of the Great Downturn on Hollywood can be felt in many different situations. We feel it here.
I wanted to look at how things move across careers in industry.
Above the Line (Creative Placements):
- Screenwriters and directors: A decrease in the number of projects greenlit means a decrease in demand for their work. Established names will likely be able to weather the storm better, but new talent may struggle to break in. There will be no money to pay the salaries of those at the bottom. So the best thing you can do is write specs with a high upside or make films that venues can get to boost their lineups for less money.
- Actors: Top stars who have proven box office success are relatively isolated. However, middle-class actors may see fewer roles or smaller budgets. If you’re trying to make a movie or TV show, it might be worth it just to get people who are very famous, but if you have good funding, consider getting great talent who maybe isn’t famous yet but is looking to work.
Below the Line (production crew):
- Control Gaffer Group Designers Clients: These crew members depend on the productions being filmed. Fewer projects translate into less work and potentially longer periods between gigs. Hopefully, working in commercials will be able to boost your income.
- Studio directors and directors: While some may see increased pressure to deliver results, high-level positions may be relatively stable. However, there may be some consolidation or restructuring within the studios. This means that executives must look for specs where they can build or make a name for themselves so they can move up faster and avoid layoffs.
Other industry workers:
- Client: With fewer projects, there are fewer projects that can be represented and agents’ revenues may be lower. New agents may have difficulty building their client base.
- Entertainment Lawyers: Deal flow may slow as projects come under more scrutiny, impacting lawyers who specialize in entertainment deals.
- Freelancers and independent contractors: Many behind-the-scenes roles are freelance or contract-based. Downturn can lead to fewer freelance opportunities and increased competition for gigs.
How long will the downturn last?
Behind the scenes on The last of us
Cook optics
The great contraction It has an undeniable ripple effect on those working in the industry.
Across the board, job insecurity persists as the industry seeks to establish itself in this new era. The Great Downturn is acting as a catalyst, forcing Hollywood insiders to adapt or potentially face being left behind as the industry focuses on profitability and a changing model of content creation and distribution.
It is impossible to predict how long the major downturn in Hollywood will last, as it is affected by many ever-changing factors such as how people consume content, the overall economic climate, and the unpredictable impact of emerging technologies.
I believe that by 2025, the box office will return to normal and film production will expand. Hopefully 2024 will have all the consolidation, and 2025 could be a boom year as these companies look to spend and make things.
We need to focus on gradual growth and expansion.
This will bring more jobs and more opportunities.
The landscape in Hollywood may look different in the coming years, but the passion for storytelling that fuels it will persist, pushing the industry to find new ways of doing business.
Let me know your predictions in the comments.
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