Ben Zauzmer’s Math Picks – The Hollywood Reporter

For the first seven decades of Oscar history, the Oscars and the general public more or less agreed on what constituted a “good” film. Box office champions love Gone with the Wind, The best years of our lives, The bridge on the River Kwai, Ben Hur, Lawrence of Arabia, sound of Music, The Godfather, Rain Man, TitanicAnd many more, it won Best Picture and many other Oscar categories. But then, after the final moments of… The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King In 2004 everything changed. Over the past 20 years, it has become routine for a number-one film at the box office not to be nominated for Best Picture, let alone win.

But this year, moviegoers and voters may have finally reached a compromise. The global phenomenon “Barbenheimer” is poised to shake up the Oscar race as much as it did at the box office. But before turning their inevitable nominations into victories, Barbie And Oppenheimer You will have to go through the likes Moonflower Killers, Retainers, Bad things, Past life, American fantasyAnd many dear critics. How likely are you to hear these names in the top brackets on Tuesday morning?

Every year — my tenth Hollywood Reporter – I use a mathematical model that converts each potential nominee’s resume of nominations, wins (such as results from guild awards), critics’ scores, and betting markets into the probability that a film, actor, or screenplay will win that desired nomination. The basic premise of the model is that data points that have done a better job at predicting, say, Best Actress nominees in the past will be the strongest predictors of this year’s five finalists in that category, so these historically predictive inputs deserve more weight.

Let’s take a look at the math’s predictions for this year’s Oscar nominees before the Oscar nominations are revealed on January 23…

Best picture

six movies – Moonflower Killers, Oppenheimer, Bad things, Retainers, BarbieAnd American fantasy – Very close, all of them got above 95 percent to be nominated. Not too far behind Past life By 93 percent and Artist, band leader By 87 percent. Anatomy of a fall It jumped to ninth place thanks in part to a strong performance in the BAFTA nominations on Thursday morning.

The last place is very ready. If there aren’t any surprises among the top nine (if they are big), it will be a front-runner for Best International Picture Area of ​​interest He seems to have the inside track, but don’t count out the next level, which includes… Violet, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Through the Spider-VerseAnd May December.

Best director

Christopher Nolan is 0/5 at the Oscars, with losses to souvenir, beginningAnd DunkirkNot to mention that there were no personal nominations at all for films like The Dark Knight And prestige. But the math suggests there’s a good chance it could change: Nolan is the front-runner for Best Director Oppenheimerwhich is a lock for nomination.

But to win the prize, he will likely have to beat out Yorgos Lanthimos (Bad things), Martin Scorsese (Moonflower Killers), Greta Gerwig (Barbie), and one more. This last place could be any Alexander Payne (Retainers), Jonathan Glazer (Area of ​​interestCeline’s song (Past life), or any number of other contenders.

best actor

If I had to make predictions for the four acting races right now, this would be the toughest choice. Golden Globe Winners – Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer(And Paul Giamatti)Retainers) – Keep the top two, but in what order?

For now, we know that their three fellow Screen Actors Guild nominees – Bradley Cooper (Artist, band leader), Coleman Domingo (Rustin), and Jeffrey Wright (American fantasy) – all above 60 percent to be nominated. But Leonardo DiCaprio (Moonflower Killers) with a strong 46 percent, making him threaten to withdraw the nomination from one of the top five.

Best Actress

Lily Gladstone (Moonflower Killers) was dominating awards season when she received some surprising news Thursday morning: that she didn’t crack the nominees list at the BAFTAs. Suddenly, this race looks much more open than it did a week ago. She’s still on track to become the first Native American Oscar nominee for Best Actress, but her fans are hoping for more than just a nomination.

If turning down a BAFTA bodes trouble for her Oscar campaign, the most likely beneficiary will be Emma Stone (Bad things). The group below Stone includes Carey Mulligan (Artist, band leader), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Greta Lee (Past life), Sandra Holler (Anatomy of a fall), and Annette Bening (Naiad). But this category is all below 80 percent, so just being nominated isn’t a sure thing for any of them.

Best Supporting Actor

Watch for this race on Oscar night. If both Best Picture and Best Supporting Actor end up in a race between them Oppenheimer, Moonflower KillersAnd Barbie, the best supporting representative can serve as an early clue as to where voters’ sympathies lie. Not that these two categories have a particularly strong record of association, but every little hint helps.

In terms of acting, their actors include Robert Downey Jr., Robert De Niro, and Ryan Gosling. No one else gets 50% for the nomination, except Mark Ruffalo (Bad things), Charles Milton (May December), Sterling K. brown (American fantasy), and Willem Dafoe (Bad things) are the next best bets.

Best Supporting Actress

Such as Robert Downey Jr., Davenjoy Randolph (Retainers) has an impressive Oscar-winning resume to date. Golden Globe win, Screen Actors Guild nomination, Critics’ Choice nomination, BAFTA nomination, lots of Critics Circle Awards, etc. This definitely feels like her year.

If not, the people most likely to organize a surprise would be the duo who were also nominated by the four groups mentioned above, Danielle Brooks (Violet(and Emily Blunt)Oppenheimer). One unexpected but fascinating story to keep an eye on: There’s a slim chance that Sandra Holler will become the twelfth person nominated for acting in two different films in the same year.

Best Original Screenplay

There is something missing here. After receiving a lot of praise and honor for his original screenplay, Barbie It has been classified by the Academy as an adaptation. Suddenly, the trophy that seemed destined for Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach was now in question.

She loves mathematics Past life, Anatomy of a fall, RetainersAnd Artist, band leader To hear their names called with someone air or May December Grab the last place. But this is one of the strangest categories of the year, so we shouldn’t be surprised if the nominations announcement is just as strange.

Best Adapted Screenplay

It was difficult to pinpoint a best adapted screenplay even before its surprise inclusion Barbie. People have made the case for either Oppenheimer or American fantasy or Bad things Being the favorite in this race, it is difficult at this point to confidently say that any of them are wrong. Then you add Barbie To this combination the image becomes darker.

The data says Moonflower Killers He has the best chance of getting a fifth nomination. But if it doesn’t happen (and that doesn’t mean great things about the best photo opportunities), We are all strangers And Area of ​​interest They look ready to pounce on the open hatch. The pre-race finishes on Tuesday morning. And then the real race begins.