Hollywood faces a dramatic twist at the 2024 box office

It’s no secret that 2023 wasn’t a great year for movies, especially the box office, but experts predict 2024 will be even worse for Hollywood.

Despite somewhat of a comeback in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, which brought the movie industry to a halt and butts in movie theater seats for nearly two years, analysts expect a 10 to 15 percent decline in revenue this year.

There may also be no shocking horror movie, as there are no films to cross the $1 billion mark in 2024 at the global box office. Only two films will receive this honor in 2023, and they were both unexpected hits Barbie And Super Mario Bros movie. The third highest grossing film, which grossed $952 million and surprised many, was OppenheimerChristopher Nolan’s epic about the man who helped build the atomic bomb dropped on Japan in World War II.

In 2023, the domestic box office grossed just under $9 billion, which represents a roughly 21 percent jump from the previous year but nowhere near pre-pandemic times when nets of $10 billion and even close to $12 billion were the norm. . All figures are based on figures from Box Office Mojo.

“Domestic, I’m expecting just over $8 billion in 2024. This would represent a clear decline from 2023’s $9 billion, but that’s largely due to a lighter release slate that lacks clear action-level films. said Sean Robbins, chief analyst at Boxoffice Pro and founder of The Box Office Theory Newsweek.

“Looking ahead, it is hoped that the most significant recovery in the industry to date will occur in 2025.”

Among the experts who expect an economic downturn this year is Daniel Lora, senior vice president of content strategy at Boxoffice Media. Newsweek Why is the industry preparing to navigate the “choppy waters” ahead?

“It’s about production,” he began, adding that writers and actors’ strikes that have been going on for months have affected the 2024 release schedule, resulting in fewer films arriving in theaters and less money coming in via ticket sales.

“This will be the year Hollywood recalibrates as the impact of the pandemic and strikes begin to stabilize.”

Last year was also a bit of a shock for the box office because the usual Hollywood giants like Marvel and its parent company Disney underperformed, at least by their standards. In fact, Marvel posted its worst opening weekend ever Wonders And Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantum Obsession For the first time since 2015, Disney was not the highest-grossing studio in the world. It also missed out on having a film in the top three, something that hasn’t happened to the Mouse House since 2011.

The downturn in what were once blockbusters could be a result of the fact that audiences are tired of the familiar content studios produce year after year. It’s all well and good to say that studios need to be more creative, but the movies coming out this year would have been planned years in advance, and Hollywood strikes have made it impossible for studios to respond flexibly to changing audience tastes.

“They won’t be able to do anything about it, so they’ll subject us to the same outcome,” said Alexander Ross, a visiting scholar and Yale College Branford Fellow. Newsweek.

“There’s been an abundance of everything…and they’re giving us more action and more superheroes in one movie, which is kind of frustrating and annoying.”

Despite the boredom that some movie fans feel with the creations produced by major Hollywood studios, this does not mean that 2024 will not witness some major films; It may not come from the expected source, such as Marvel or Disney. It is because of this unexpected factor that many analysts Newsweek They were hesitant to say with certainty that 2024 won’t have billion-dollar movies.

“At this point last year, I don’t think any of us expected this Oppenheimer “…to get the result of success that I did,” Laura said. “What I’m saying is, when it comes to blockbuster movies, we see audiences surprising us in ways we could never have been prepared for.”

But Laura can understand why some people are expecting $0 billion blockbusters in 2024, because “last year’s predictable blockbusters,” like a Marvel, Pixar or DC movie, aren’t as successful as they used to be.

He adds, “But this does not mean that other films have not progressed towards success… There is a demand for blockbuster films, but a 2019 blockbuster will not have the same impact that it had.” “We’ve seen that with Barbie“.

So, what are some movies that could cross the $1 billion mark this year?

“The outstanding candidates are dead pool And joker “Although there’s always a chance to surprise or over-perform something,” Robbins explained, while Laura also suggested Despicable me 4 It could be a single shot.

Deadpool 3 It sees Ryan Reynolds returning as a cynical superhero, but what makes the film a highly anticipated release is the return of Hugh Jackman as Wolverine and joining his ‘nemesis’ Deadpool on the silver screen.

Joker The follow-up includes the addition of much-talked-about pop star Lady Gaga, and was the highest-grossing R-rated film to have grossed over $1 billion. In fact, while some skeptics have argued Deadpool 3 The R rating could affect its ability to earn a billion dollars, and Laura explained that the rating is not a cause for concern anymore.

“The concept of the R rating has changed a lot over the past six years… and while the billion-dollar R rating is still a hurdle to clarify, different countries have different rating systems,” Laura said.

When predicting which movies will gross $1 billion, understanding the international market is crucial. But more importantly, the film’s ability to break the billion mark at the box office depends almost entirely on its success in China.

“A lot of those films that have reached the billion-dollar mark in the last 10 years wouldn’t have done so without the performance of the Chinese market,” Laura said.

Laura’s stance is mirrored by the problems Disney has faced in China, where in 2023 it has suffered a number of flops, including a live-action remake of the film. the little Mermaid and a three-year nationwide ban on Marvel titles. But it’s not just Disney that has problems in China. A lot of Hollywood content struggles in China because audiences there are receptive to locally made content. The growing sense of patriotism and Chinese sense of rebuke during the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic has led them to turn away from Western media content.

“US-China relations are waning, nationalistic sentiment is rising, and debates about the attractiveness or usefulness of Western culture to China are more prominent than ever,” Jonathan Sullivan, director of China programs at the University of Nottingham, said in 2016. England said Newsweek in June.

Although the number of films hitting screens this year will be lower, there are ways Hollywood studios can ensure they continue to make big money.

One way is to pump new supplies of movies into theaters continuously throughout 2024 or create an event out of a release, such as having thousands of people dress up in pink to attend Barbie Offers. This phenomenon has even been credited with the film’s success before Barbie Actress Margot Robbie, in her award speech after the film won the Box Office and Cinematic Achievement awards at the Golden Globe Awards on Sunday.

“I should go and watch the movie Water Cooler” like Jaws or star Wars “Barely Exists Anymore,” Ross, who also wrote The evolution of Hollywood blockbusters: blockbusters, to explain.

He suggests that movie theaters and studios work together to also consider “the full experience of the entertainment they provide,” such as special event screenings that create a sense of community, such as Taylor Swift’s fans coming out in their millions to see a concert. Her record-breaking film Tour of the ages.

Laura also insists that the success of any individual film does not rest solely on its laurels, but is highly dependent on industry news and release schedule.

“The choices available to moviegoers on a week-to-week level really help elevate and maintain the dynamism of the market. The old market where a big movie only comes out every three weeks makes it really difficult to keep (box office) performance at a high level.” “Level,” Laura said.

Laura added that despite the expected box office decline in 2024, it’s not all doom and gloom in Hollywood and this is definitely “not the new normal.”

Surprise blockbusters of the past year, e.g Barbie And Super Mario Bros movieAs Laura pointed out, they were not “conceited conceiters” who came out of nowhere. They were driven by major studios with good budgets and strong marketing campaigns, which helped turn them into major hits.

Just because movies may not make as much in 2024 as in previous years isn’t a big deal, according to Laura, who said, “A billion dollars is not a healthy bill in the industry,” and that, in fact, Hollywood is fine with.