Global revenues for 2024 will lag behind 2023 – The Hollywood Reporter

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Next year may be the first time in the post-pandemic era that global box office receipts suffer an annual decline.

According to leading analytics firm Gower Street, worldwide movie ticket sales are expected to reach an estimated $31.5 billion, down five percent from $33.4 billion in 2023, according to the London-based company’s annual forecast. This compares to $25.9 billion in 2022 and $21.3 billion in 2021, or – before the arrival of Covid-19 – $42.3 billion in 2019.

The Gower Street report, released on Tuesday, should not come as a surprise to the global film industry. Historic labor strikes in Hollywood have led to a slew of films being postponed from 2024 to 2025, which some say could result in a loss of up to $2 billion from the overall gross.

“The impact of recent writer and actor strikes on the release calendar, in terms of Hollywood productions with global appeal, has been significant,” said Rob Mitchell, director of theatrical insights at Gower Street. “This is the main driver of this slight dip in recovery momentum we are seeing in 2024 which appears to be postponing any chance of a return to pre-pandemic levels until 2025.”

Gower Street attributes the downturn to the loss of 50 percent of production time due to strikes, versus a lack of interest from consumers in going to the movies. This summer achieved pre-pandemic status thanks only to Barbenheimer. “In fact, with July 2023 being a record month at the global box office, we know there is strong audience demand for compelling theatrical releases,” Mitchell said.

Dimitrios Mitsinikos, CEO of Gower Street, adds, “Based on the current productions on our radar, we expect 2025 to be a very good year at the global box office and hopefully a positive definer for the second half of this decade.”

Movie viewing habits around the world are still trying to find their footing after the Covid-19 crisis. Despite making gains each year, global revenues for 2023 will still lag 2019 by 21 to 22 percent, while Gower Street’s forecast for 2024 will see them down 25 percent from 2019. The good news: 2023 revenues will be up by 29 percent 2022, including a 20% to 22% increase in North America.

According to Gower Street, 2024 box office receipts in North America will be $8 billion, a full 11 percent increase from 2023. That would represent a 30 percent decline from the 2017-2019 average.

The 2024 foreign box office — excluding China — is expected to finish 7 percent behind 2023 with an estimated $15.6 billion, helped by domestic productions. However, this is still 21 percent lower than the 2017-2019 average.

In China, box office receipts are expected to achieve a modest year-on-year increase of 5% in 2024, as the world’s most populous country adopts local pricing on Hollywood productions. Revenues are expected to reach $7.9 billion next year, compared to $7.6 billion expected in 2023.

“The international market is slightly less affected by the limited release calendar caused by the Hollywood strike than the domestic market,” said Thomas Beran, senior analyst at Gower Street.

Gower Street will release its final statistics for 2023 in the first week of January.