Here are the reasons why box office sales could fall short of expectations, and get worse next year
Top line
This year’s box office has been rocked by months-long Hollywood strikes, several film delays and several surprise flops, meaning 2023 grosses are likely to fall short of the $9 billion some analysts had hoped for, as the industry struggles. Cinema in order to achieve this. Return to pre-Covid sales and prepare for a difficult 2024.
Key facts
The 2023 domestic box office total stands at $8.58 billion as of Dec. 17, according to Variety, and surpassing $9 billion may be difficult due to hit films not being released before the end of the year.
The Hollywood Reporter projected the 2023 box office to be around $8.8 billion to $8.9 billion, citing several studio executives and analyst Rich Greenfield of LightShed Ventures, who attributed the poor box office performance to the pandemic, strikes and the availability of streaming.
Earlier this year, some analysts predicted that this year’s domestic box office total would exceed $9 billion, with one analyst telling CNBC that the total could be closer to $10 billion, raising hopes that the box office would finally approach pre-season levels. The epidemic.
The interference of actors and writers halted promotion of the film and led to several films (including the expected hit “Dune: Part Two”) being postponed until next year, with IndieWire predicting an estimated $500 million box office loss for the year. Total.
Several superhero films have surprisingly flopped this year, forcing studios to deal with “superhero fatigue,” and new installments of major franchises have been unable to live up to expectations (Variety predicted in January that a new “Mission: Impossible” film would arrive to a billion dollars – but I’ve only made about half of that).
Fewer films than usual hit theaters this year, contributing to lower grosses: Variety reported that 88 films were released in theaters in 2023, down from 108 films in 2019 when the gross domestic product reached $10.5 billion. , although ticket prices were about 15% lower than they are now. .
The box office faltered towards the end of the year, with this November performing 11% worse than last November after the failure of Disney’s “Wish” and “The Marvels” films, dashing analysts’ hopes that revenues would exceed Box office $9 billion.
Main background
The total domestic box office gross had topped $10 billion every year before the pandemic since 2009, and topped $11 billion between 2015 and 2019. These high returns were typically driven by multiple blockbuster films, which this year was lacking: in 2019, nine films grossed $1 billion worldwide, while only two films managed to do so this year. 2018 was the highest-grossing year at the domestic box office, when the total gross reached $11.8 billion, according to Box Office Mojo. Superhero films led the way that year, with Black Panther and Avengers: Infinity War ranked as the top-grossing films.
Contra
This year’s box office total surpassed last year’s total of $7.46 billion, thanks in part to a strong summer led by “Barbie” and “The Super Mario Bros. Movie,” the only two films to have grossed more than $500 million in domestic grosses. The year also saw several surprise successes, including “Sound of Freedom,” an anti-sex-trafficking film championed by right-wing critics, and Taylor Swift’s “Eras Tour,” which became the highest-grossing music film of all time.
What you should pay attention to
Whether the box office can rebound during the holidays remains to be seen. The last of the potential films of 2023 is “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom,” but analysts are said to be expecting a four-day opening weekend of $40 million — about half the opening of the first “Aquaman” film, which ultimately grossed more than $1. Billion worldwide. The film is the latest release from DC Studios, which has struggled to make an impact at the box office this year. The three DC films opening in theaters this year — “Shazam!” Fury of the Gods, The Flash, and Blue Beetle all failed at the box office, with the latter becoming the lowest-grossing film in the DC Extended Universe. The Marvel Cinematic Universe also suffered in what was a difficult year for superhero films, with The Marvels becoming the lowest-grossing film in the MCU.
Stake News
“Wonka” won the box office last weekend with $39 million in domestic revenue, which analysts considered a success. But with the weekend’s domestic gross only topping $80 million — significantly lower than the past two years, when “Avatar: The Way of Water” and “Spider-Man: No Way Home” dominated the box office — This “almost” guarantees that 2023 will not reach $9 billion, IndieWire reported.
Surprising fact
Early box office projections for 2024 are even worse. Many studio executives expect the 2024 box office to reach only about $8 billion, largely because several films have been postponed from 2024 to 2025 due to strikes, according to The Hollywood Reporter. The 2024 release calendar is a “disaster,” with hit films like the upcoming “Mission: Impossible” movie and “Captain America: Brave New World” being moved to 2025, a studio executive told The Hollywood Reporter.
In-depth reading
With 8 films left to premiere in December, where will the 2023 box office end up? (diverse)
$9 billion box office in 2023? After a November like this, you can’t be sure (IndieWire)
‘Wonka’ has charm, but box office weekend ensures 2023 won’t reach $9 billion (IndieWire)
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